The Pending Home Sales Index is a once monthly published account of all homes that have changed status on the MLS from an active listing (or home for sale) to a pending sale (or home under contract). By accounting for the number of homes pending nationwide the NAR publishes it’s index.
The real estate industry views the index as a sign of future home sales. They do this with the assumption that 80% of all homes pending will close within 2 months and the remainder will close with 4 months.
The index is intended to predict home sales but it may not be it’s best use for several reasons. 1. It doesn’t track FSBO sales 2. It samples only 20% of all the MLS transactions 3. it doesn’t take into consideration new construction.
In addition, in a tough mortgage climate such as the one we’re in now, a greater percentage of pending sales will fail to close at all because of lack of financing.The Pending Home Sales Index still has its place, however — it’s a terrific look at the buy-side demand for homes.
We can guage the real estate markets strength based on the Pending Home Sales Index by whether it rises or falls. When it is rising we can be sure that there are presently more buyers in the market and usually more demand brings price increases.
In June — for the second time in three months — the Pending Home Sales Index posted a large gain even as economists were calling for a loss. The inference here is that buyers are not only finding good value in all four regions of the country, but are willing to make bids on homes listed for sale.
Now, again, the uptick doesn’t mean that the pending sales will necessarily close, but it does tell us that more home buyers are finding “now” to be a good time to buy real estate.That sort of insight is what make the Pending Home Sales Index worth tracking. When buyer demand is rising, the real estate market isn’t usually far behind.