Brazil will be one of the first economies to recover from the economic slump. The OECD predicts 4% economic growth for the emerging giant in 2010. The confidence of the countrys President Lula da Silva, who during his two terms of office has transformed the countrys economy, has barely taken a denting. Brazil is emerging from the crisis, and next year we are going to have surprising growth, he announced in July.
It has been announced that the US is to provide as much as $10 billion (6 billion) in financing to go towards the development of oil fields off the Brazilian coast.US national security adviser General James Jones has been visiting the Latin American country this week and Brazilian planning minister Paulo Bernardo da Silva said that the US Export-Import Bank has now signed an agreement with energy giant Petrobras to finance exploration of the vast deepwater reserves that it is developing with a five-year, $174 billion investment program. The goal is to more than double Brazil’s production, to 3.5 million barrels a day, by 2012, making the country a top oil exporter, and increasing the wealth in the country immensely.
U.S. consumers are predicted to hold back on spending in the near future. A recent Goldman Sachs report predicts that Brazil, Russia, India and China will be responsible for around 50% of worldwide demand for exports due to their growing domestic consumption. This demand is powered by a growth in their middle classes.
Brazil has spent enormously on tourism since 1995, increasing international visitor numbers from 1.9 million to 5.2 million in 2008. The 2014 World Cup is expected to increase tourism and the Government is pledged to spend in excess of $250 million over the next 5 years on airports, roads, sanitation and hydroelectric power.
With residential mortgages only accounting for 2.5% of Brazils GDP (figures supplied by the Banco Central do Brasil), the market has huge room for expansion. To give an example, residential mortgage levels in other countries are 11% in Mexico, 20% in Chile, 45% in Spain and as much as 68% in the US. Despite the current worldwide financial crisis, mortgage lending in Brazil has risen by 41% in the last year, twice as fast as consumer credit. Caixa Economica Federal, the state-owned bank, expects to lend R$26 billion for real estate purchases in 2009 compared to its average of R$5 billion four years ago. The bank has lent R$19 billion already this year.
Brazils economy is worth $1.5 trillion, yet exports only represent 12% of this. Its population of 190 million is seeing a boom in the middle classes, which now make up more than half its population. With their increased buying power, Brazilians are buying more food, more clothing and more household goods than ever before. Sales figures for Whirlpool, which has a 40% share of Brazils appliance market, were 20% higher in May and June 2009 compared to a year earlier. Though this has been partially fuelled by tax incentives, which are due to end in October, sales are expected to remain strong. “Over the next five years, we’ll see a doubling of sales of durable goods in Brazil,” says Jos Roberto Tambasco, vice-president for operations at Po de Acar. In preparation to meet the increased demand for white goods, the supermarket giant recently paid $422 million for the appliance retailer Ponto Frio which has a network of 458 stores nationwide.